Having been in gold since '01, and referring to the evolution of...

Having been in gold since '01, and referring to the evolution of a bubble as charted above, IMO gold is in the "mania phase" but still at about the "enthusiasm" level which has been drawn out for a while now and tempered by overall market aversion.

Way back when, it sucked when ABARES started calling gold long after getting it wrong for so many years, then shortly afterwards the banks started following suit - signalling the "awareness phase". Then it sucked again years later when the public interest started and "normal people" were asking me about gold and silver.

But IMO, there is nothing to suggest that we are in the greed stage yet, and as for "delusional" or "new paradigm" - they are still away aways - so looks to me the cream is still to come. Calling the top will be tricky (as always), but there is plenty of historical guidance regarding how extreme valuations can become. With reference to the dotcom boom - if gold really blows off, then it would be expected that many of the more conservative but bullish gold commentators will be saying on the parabolic curve upwards that it can't go any further. And as far as I know there aren't any of those in that position yet, except the odd (i.e. peculiar) permabear / permawrong.