1 Gold liquidation.There could be a Gold sell in off india. This...

1 Gold liquidation.
There could be a Gold sell in off india. This will have a large impact on the gold price because india comsume $15 billion year and households hoard $1.5 trillion gold. Indian households hoard more gold than the total world gold reserves. A small liquidation will flood the market with 5 to 10 tons of gold or 20% of world reserves with a value of $300 billion.

2 Indian government will sell gold in difficult times.
India has sold sold gold before in difficult times and will in a foreign exchange crisis.

3 World gold reserves are sold in a recession.
Currently world gold reserves 23, 000 tons or $1.3 trillion

4 Gold prices will fall with energy prices.
When energy costs fall, the cash cost of production an ounce will fall by around $200 ounce and reduce the price of gold.

5 High usd reduces the Gold price.
The rising usd will reduce the gold price as international gold producing companies become more competitive. Other foreign currencies will ikely fall more than Australia and we will be less competive.

6.Return on investment too low and risky.
RMS low pe ratio will hold the company back as returns rise in consevative investments when interest rate rise.Expectations for higher returns will dramaitcally increase.

7 Fall in gold demand
Fall of gold consumption back to 2008 demand of 2300 tons resuting in 1500 tons excess at todays production of 3700 tons.

8 Gold was around 1080 usd in 2016
The economy was going bad in 2019 and only covid saved the gold price. It took 30 trillion to take the gold price to $1940 ounce, Its unlikely to reach that high for some time and you more likely to see mid tier producers wiped out or profits severely reduced while waiting for the rebound.


Summary Worst case.
Liquidation of domesticly hoarded gold, world gold reserves sold and decrease in demand will flood the market.
Over capcity would consistist of around 1500 tons a year production and 10 ,000 tons hoarded gold which is double the global demand.

Gold price target $750 usd