Gold pattern pointing up, page-8

have a look at it on a 6 month daily and the emerging flag pattern is clear.

fundamentally the longer term picture for USD gold is exactly 50-50

- US treasury rates are telling us USD is going lower and gold going higher
- a grexit would drive Euro up, USD down, gold up
- clear signs of early bottoming in emerging market economies and europe - also suggesting USD likely to ease

- against that you have US being much further ahead in interest rate cycle - so should be at least one spike in USD strength whenever they raise rates

my take - gold spikes to USD 1250-1300 but then flops around before pulling back whenever market gets convinced it knows when US rates will rise.

Your key issue is you don't believe gold price has hit an inflection point so are still loooking at it as contiuation of previous long term pattern

well that could be right. or last Nov could have marked start of new cycle.

2 years ago I would have said gold would need to get down to US900 to go neutral and 750 to bottom.

But i thought we;d be there by now

and the more oil and food price rises start to feed through the more likely gold will come back into focus for its inflation hedge.