I can give you a section of the report that was issued 3 or 4 weeks ago but not the whole thing as there are other companies covered.
The Allied share price rose from 13.5p to 32.75p in 2007, an increase of 143%. This week’s A$10.5m placement was undertaken instead of drawing down on the final instalment of the company’s financing facility with RMB and Macquarie
Bank, which the company deemed unattractive. Our company valuation now stands at 49.6p per share, offering a 33.2% premium to the current share price.
A key attraction of Simberi is the growing potential for this project to be expanded from its initial start-up throughput rate of 2.2Mtpa to 3.5Mtpa. We have attached a 70% probability to such an expansion. With key equipment, such as the aerial rope-conveyor, capable of handling up to 4.0Mtpa the capital required to facilitate such an increase would be ~US$30m. Our valuation includes this 70% probability of such an expansion.
Based on the current 2.2Mtpa throughput, our latest net earnings estimates increase from US$15.6m in FY08 (end-June) to US$31.1m in FY09, with free-cash flow of ~US$1.5m, rising to US$38.7m in FY09. An increase in throughput to 3.5Mtpa is likely to impact production from FY10, taking our current estimate in that fiscal year from US$20.4m to US$37.1m, all other variables remaining
constant.
It is worth noting that we currently have a FY08 (end-June) gold price forecast of US$710/oz. The year-to-date average since 1 July 2007 is now US$735.7/oz and we will review our forecasts later this quarter, particularly with the gold price recently moving back above US$800/oz and indeed US$850/oz last week. If we were to use a flat gold price for FY09 of US$850/oz our net earnings figure would
increase 30% to US$40.2m, offering a one-year forward P/E of 6.2x.
The Simberi oxides offer not only immediate cash flow, but they can also provide the exploration budget for the group’s other exploration ground. The potential for increasing the current oxide resource is high and the sulphide anomalies need further investigation. The neighbouring islands of Tatau and Big Tabar have
extremely attractive indications of large-scale caldera formations. There are three rigs on-site at Simberi, partially to develop the oxide resource base on Simberi,
but also to progress the understanding of the known sulphide occurrences. A sulphide resource of 0.5Moz has been delineated under the designated area for
the main Sorowar oxide pit. A clear magnetic low, suggesting extensive hydrothermal activity, extends northwest and southeast of this known sulphide
zone. All-in-all, a highly prospective land portfolio.
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