Gold price, page-103

Hi Lemons,

A couple of points on the above.

-Analysts are notoriously wrong. There was a point early to mid last year that analysts still had target prices on BDR of 60c+, BDR was not a 60c company last year in my opinion. Analysts followed the price all the way down and they will follow it all the way back up again. I wouldn't be basing my buys and sells on what published analyst reports say.
- Analysts are likely to use conservative metrics, especially given the above. Poor performance and failure to meet guidance on a number of occasions probably warrants analysts taking the bottom end of provided guidance. Assumed POG will also depend very much on whether the respective brokers are bullish or bearish POG.
- Analysts have to use information available to them when making their models. They don't have the option of being as forward looking as other market participants. On the current state of play BDR may be worth 30-33c. The thing is we have the potential to plug so many more assumptions into this thing. For example a lot of contributors to this thread see a higher POG in the near future. If an analyst produced there 12 month target price with the assumption of $1,400 or $1,500 gold they would be laughed at. Or others who aren't necessarily as bullish POG might see managements increase in mining economy leading to the high end of guidance being reached or a 12 month beat. Lastly on top of these we have large scale drilling going on that has the potential to greatly increase our resource and LOM. Longer life of mine = greater multiples of eps warranted in generating a target price. However until that is officially reported analysts can't work on that.

So as I say while the current state of play might be 30-33c, if any or all of the three things I have listed above play out plus left field options like M&A etc this company could be considerably higher in 12 months time than what analysts are targeting right now.