Sorry for slow reply - busy yesterday w/ work My pessimism is...

Sorry for slow reply - busy yesterday w/ work

My pessimism is short term - I think we'll be doing much better Q1 2018. A higher PoG and a few stronger quarterlies will change that. I do think the SJ can refloat this company - just not as fast as we'd like it. I suspect it was run into the ground pretty hard by prior management and fixing that in Brazil takes time.

Short term I think we'll languish till at least August in terms of SP. We'll lag other goldies due to stock sentiment from this quarterly and will be overshadowed by a sagging pog. You can look at numerous peers who had a stronger quarterly and that's simply going to hold them in better stead when sentiment in the sector drops in line with a flat/falling pog as per my predictions.

Positives:
- ongoing good exploration results are hopefully going to continue w/ further revisions to resource/reserves
- I think BDR has enough cash to remain solvent for the most of 2017, buying time to get operations working profitably. I think 2018 will have a high enough pog that if BDR can limp to it long enough it'll survive as a company

Speculative Negatives:
- Operation improvements are key to dropping AISC. We'll need to see when the grid powerlines come online, no benefit to the next quarterly if they're not running soon. I'm unsure as to whether their other operational improvements/repairs/refits are completed yet or not and how much more capex is going to be expended. Operational reporting is pretty brief in their releases - does anyone have a lot of confidence they're on track 100% with their improvement plans based on the information given
- If they miss on operational then we'll continue to have a higher AISC than necessary and will probably need a CR by the end of the year as cash reserves dry up
- To hit guidance for the remainder of the year the grades will need to improve as much as projected or they'll miss
- BRL pressure may continue to be a drag on AISC....who knows. With the reduction in the MACA debt hopefully financing costs drop meaningfully too....again we'll see

Clearly the CR earlier this year was well timed as even excluding GDXJ shenanigans managment must've foreseen a SP fall. I'm not against SJ and co - I'm just not sure they can fully right this ship prior to the next quarterly in the setting of a flat or falling pog and taking into consideration all the runs they need to get on the board in a short period (getting operational updates online, fine tuning existing operation, hitting required grades to make guidance, lowering financial costs, not getting too badly mauled on Fx and pog hits). Hence, I think they'll need more time and probably another CR at the end of the year.

Time will tell. I'm still holding - and if there's a firesale in the teens will be scrounging some dry powder to do some buying here if other goldies don't go on sale.

And still don't think I'm at all a good stock analyst - happy to be proven completely wrong! Good, average or poor I still have to try