Gold price, page-12733

V

I had to do something like that in September 2014 after losing most of the gains achieved in the previous 5 years.

My target was to get back in during the next major gold/goldie selldown, which on the basis of seasonal patterns was expected in December 2014. I got lucky because the AUD POG bottomed out around that time with the AUD declining relative to the USD. Our goldies also got a bit of tailwind from lower input costs as wages and oil price declined.

If there is a major gold/goldie selldown in the next few weeks then there could be the opportunity to enter for a significant bounce to benefit from the rise in gold demand as Indians gear up for their festivals. In recent years the gold price has tended to tumble from October into December, reach a low level of sentiment and give brave/foolhardy souls a chance to make large gains on goldies assuming things go to plan in January/February when Chinese demand is high for their new year celebrations.

A somewhat complicating factor in the last few weeks is that the AUD has been rising in relative terms to the USD.

I guess what I am saying is that its best to only trade very selectively when conditions are most likely to be in your favour, in particular use seasonal demand factors, market sentiment, CME COT positions, Fed FOMC meeting dates, and real interest rates in your considerations. If there is financial instability (eg Italian bank bailins) then expect a lift in gold demand in the region where the bailins are happening. Take note what is happening with Chindian gold demand, and any impediments to imports (eg the imposition of new taxes by the Indian govt.)

Finally you need to take a realistic view of the goldies. It is easy to get caught out. By concentrating your speculatiion on the larger profitable goldies you may not make as high a percentage gain, but at least there is more chance of them staying alive. Make smaller bets on some of more risky goldies, but limit losses there. SLR and RMS seem to be OK for speculation while BDR and BLK are questionable until they prove themselves so I would only bet on them when conditions are buoyant

I am beginning to think that there may now be only one or two points in time each year when its worthwhile to gamble on the goldies, firstly around July/August and secondly in the November or December low. So the idea would be to make whatever gain one can and then simply stay away until the next major low.

The easy gains happened from December 2014 to around September 2016.

I am concerned about the longterm downtrend line from March 2011 acting as a barrier to the POG, the lack of catalysts to generate interest in gold, what might happen if Chindian demand were to fall (eg due to the failure of the monsoon rains), higher real interest rates/lack of inflation, and that the sharemarkets around the world are still doing OK (but perhaps reaching the end of their run sometime next year).

There is always the possibility that hard commodities generally will not have another major run for the next 15 years, and the only reason why the USD POG may go up (or not collapse) is because of the growing income of countries where gold is valued (Chindia/Asia generally). I note that Japan has had low growth, low inflation, but not economic collapse after a major bout of credit creation and asset inflation, for the last 25 years - and I often wonder if the "west" is going down that path.

Good luck with your speculation.

loki (my point of view is worth as much as or as little as the next person's point of view.)