As usual, the analyses on the pog trend as reported in the news...

As usual, the analyses on the pog trend as reported in the news doesn't stand up to further scrutiny.

For example, on 16 Oct, the Australian Mining reported MinEx's study that "...within the next 40 years gold revenues and production [in Australia] are set to drop by up to 50 per cent, while the number of operating mines could drop by one-third."

A month later, on 17 Oct, BullionVault's headline reads "Gold Price Hits 5-Month Aussie High as No.2 Mine Output Forecast to Halve in 40 Years".

During the month following MinEx's published report, the USD pog continued its usual frustrating fluctuations, as seen on the website goldprice.org. Similar case for the CAD pog. Only the AUD pog climbed consistently from AUD1,635 to AUD1,710 in this period.

As both the AUD and CAD are considered commodity currencies, Oz is No.2 & Canada No.5 in global Au production, their avg exchange rates are about on par and similar population size, it would be reasonable to expect the pog trend to be similar for AUD and CAD. But that isn't the case. Without deeper analysis on the lack of impact to the USD and CAD pog, what we read in the news is so one-sided.

Being determined to find a reasonable logic for the AUD75 rise in the pog, I checked the relevant forex rates on bloomberg markets. Turned out that during this period the AUD has lost approx. 2.5% and 4% respectively against the CAD and USD. So it looks like there were no recent significant fundamentals at work here and AUD pog is still the function of various fluctuating trends. Cheers. R.