Early indicator of whether the Fed will raise rates is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index data point release on 30th November:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905
Fed's mandate is jobs and inflation. Jobs mandate has already been meet. Lots of jobs have been created, not an issue. Inflation target is 2.0%. If this index comes in less than 1.3% no way the Fed will be raising rates on 12-13th December. It'll be more concerned about chance of Deflation, which would only be exaserbated by a rate hike.
We know the US Economy is on life support, but its what the market believes that's important to asset market prices. I'll be watching this data release with interest.
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