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Gold price, page-4327

  1. 4,388 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 475
    Jez that BLS mob sure know how to cover their butts..they openly say their numbers can be out + or - 100,000 or more...what a show.....so pick a number any number really.....ha....markets rally on these numbers...pog falls on these massaged numbers...I've gotta stop digging into this can of worms......
    Below cut straight from their site....
    Move that dirt...

    Reliability of the estimates

    Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys are subject to both
    sampling and nonsampling error. When a sample, rather than the entire population,
    is surveyed, there is a chance that the sample estimates may differ from the true
    population values they represent. The component of this difference that occurs
    because samples differ by chance is known as sampling error, and its variability
    is measured by the standard error of the estimate. There is about a 90-percent
    chance, or level of confidence, that an estimate based on a sample will differ by
    no more than 1.6 standard errors from the true population value because of sampling
    error. BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-percent level of confidence.

    For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm
    employment from the establishment survey is on the order of plus or minus 115,000.
    Suppose the estimate of nonfarm employment increases by 50,000 from one month to
    the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the monthly change would range from
    -65,000 to +165,000 (50,000 +/- 115,000). These figures do not mean that the sample
    results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent
    chance that the true over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this
    range includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that
    nonfarm employment had, in fact, increased that month. If, however, the reported
    nonfarm employment rise was 250,000, then all of the values within the 90- percent
    confidence interval would be greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at
    least a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment had, in fact, risen that month.
    At an unemployment rate of around 6.0 percent, the 90-percent confidence interval
    for the monthly change in unemployment as measured by the household survey is
    about +/- 300,000, and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about
    +/- 0.2 percentage point.
 
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