As someone with a small background in statistics that drives me wild. If your data collection system is so poor that 2 standard deviations from the mean is more than a 50% swing either way on your average month you are obviously doing it effing wrong. They need to update their methods significantly. And that right there just proves my exact point last night. I doubt June was as bad as the read we got and I doubt July or August are as good. ADP numbers I am sure are more accurate. It is just like here in Aus after a wildly unbelievable number a couple years back no one trusts the ABS number anymore. Massive hit to pog "down the elevator" that we will have to grind back up the stairs on poor pieces of smaller data over the next few weeks.
I still see no rate rise. The US are stuck in a defacto rate rise and cut cycle here without even officially changing monetary policy. The rest of the world is up a creek with no paddle, we know that. So "strong" US data, shonky or not forces their dollar up through strength they can't afford the absolute adrenalin hit in the arm a rate rise would generate on top of that. So their cycle is some decent data comes out pushes the dollar up, that begins to hurt things like manufacturing etc that leads to poor data and weaker gdp and pushes the dollar back down and round and round it goes. They simply just can't afford to be in a tightening cycle when basically everyone else in the world is still easing. The dichotomy between them and the rest of the world simply isn't that polarised.
Oh and on the off chance they do raise and POG got pushed back towards say $1,200 we might see the following:
Annual production of 175k @ 600 margins (1300-700) = 105m @ 76c = 138m AUD vs 175k @ 500 = 87.5m @ 68c = 128m AUD.
If the US confirm they are in a rate tightening cycle while we are absolutely in a easing cycle (I expect 2 more cuts in the next 9 months), unless POG is really hardly sold off (there are enough non US issues that I expect this won't be the case), a fall in POG will make little difference to BDR's reported profit.
Hold on to your seat V*, I will even buy you one of those bottles of spirits if you sit down until the end of the year
