Yeah, I think we are in a scenario where it depends on the driver of the USD on whether we have negative or positive correlation.
USD strength born from "positive" market data, like NFP - whether it be legit or not - is obviously going to cause a negative correlation.
USD weakness from poor data is going to cause gold to rise due to the safe haven bid and worries about global growth etc.
USD strength as a result of weakness from ROW will probably see them bid up in tandem.
So imo in terms of seeing a rising POG the only things we don't want to see is US specific positive data. Our problem at the moment is the AUD is on a mini tear and that is kind of negating any POG benefits. We are up about 2c vs the USD since we cut rates a week ago. Oops, don't think that is what the RBA wanted.
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