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V, I concur. I have been buying BBOZ and BBUS to short the ASX...

  1. 385 Posts.
    V,
    I concur. I have been buying BBOZ and BBUS to short the ASX and S&P500. Don't own any at the moment.
    This is indeed a dilemma as I speculate if the ASX $#!T itself would GOLD miners hold up and be a safe haven?
    Interestingly I have just been reading Christine Hughes newsletter, Otterwood Capital, on the Fed and interest rates. This reinforces my view on being long GOLD and GOLD miners. DYOR
    Weekly Macro Insights for August 19, 2016

    I think the U.S. Dollar is going to fall 15% (at least) in the near future. Here's why...

    Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote a blog post a few weeks ago pointing out the Fed’s interest rate target has decreased which means the Fed will let inflation run hot before hiking rates. Bernanke makes the case for remaining “lower for longer,” you can read the blog post here.
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-...omy-and-its-implications-for-monetary-policy/
    In addition, the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is scheduled for August 25-27 and the title of the meeting is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.” The world’s top central bankers and academics will be in attendance and given the uncharted waters we’re in economically it sounds like their prepping the world for a change in policy. More inflation anyone?

    If the Fed doesn't hike even as inflation moves above 2%, that will hit the U.S. Dollar. Due to easy monetary policy everywhere else in the world the US dollar has been strong by comparison. A strong dollar does the world a lot of harm as we saw last year - see here. The world wants and needs a weak dollar and it looks to me as though the Fed's going to make it happen.

    The chart below shows the relationship between the value of the US dollar (in red) and how large speculators are positioned in the USD futures (in black). If you analyze the chart for a moment you can see how the action of the large speculator (black line) leads the direction of the U.S. Dollar (red line). According to this leading indicator, the U.S. Dollar is poised to fall about 16%!!! This is good for risk assets in general but especially good for commodities, currencies of commodity producers like the Canadian dollar, emerging markets and their currencies.


    Column 1
    0

    If the Fed gets behind the movement to weaken the US dollar by keeping rates low in the face of higher inflation prints, the inflation trade will win out.
 
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