Gold price, page-6446

@V* - written last night, but system went down for maintenance.
This is what I saved ... still longer than I (or you) wanted it to be...apologies...
@V* - very short term chart, hourly, but obviously people trade it, and even smaller intervals.
Note: No trading session on CME tonight (Holiday), as you know. I was expecting gold to tonight test last Friday high, take out bear stops and then fall to retest last Friday lows.
Discussed some of this at length over the weekend which I think you read....so not printing the same Charts....
Basically, the momentum is not with us, most evident by the 5 successive lower highs in the recent choppy trading range... with a steady flow of "good" news for gold, and I think the mkt was screaming that something was not right. We saw this last Tues as price smashed thru 1,302 Support, $1,300 Round number (psychological), and then started crawling down the Brexit day candle, settling there, 1255 (not - to my surprise - taking out the stops at the Brexit low...stayed a few cents above), and then finally smashing thru it's lows last Friday to take out a bunch of "smarter" bulls who had hidden their stops way below there, and area of huge liquidity.
I watched, and blogged it in real time on Gold Forum until 3:00am last Friday action carefully that day, the price spike is, I am sure, short covering (especially before a weekend ...and a Long Weekend), and the Market Makers then rode it up to let it settle, marginally in the black (green?), perhaps to throw a bone to the bulls. It was unquestionably not a capitulation as someone we both know said, and I wouldn't even call it a relief rally.
Nor would I say that of Monday Asia / Pac session, and LON is still in play, now at 1,260.This was a clear lower low at 1,241 (below 1250.11, Bexit low), and while there may be a decisive breach of it (1,250), we haven't seen it yet. People can buy now, and see if it makes it back to $1,302, but this would be counter trend (against the obvious bearish momentum), so would have to be attentive.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a tradable bounce up to 1,300 /1,302, but the repeated failures to test Resistance in that range on "good news", the lower highs, the sheer ferocity of last week's action, suggest it won't have much luck breaking through that. Look at the months of choppy trading, congestion.
In fact, if I had an account that permitted it (I don't), I would short at that level (Rule: sell into strength = resistance). We now have a new (lower) resistance 1302 (used to be 1,375), and we have to test it and see if it can hold.
Until then, I feel we can say nothing, but that would be my "forecast" based on the price action.
Re tonight, there can be no action without NY (CME not trading).

Personally, while it could clearly break through 1,302, the balance of probabilities is closer to a failed test of that new Resistance, and retracement back to, and then below, the current levels,i.e to the 1,199-1,205 of 30 May which some have already discussed (and really sticks out on your "further back" chart, and which marks the next Support, and for the first time since New Year, a lower low.
We are in agreement that the L/T downtrend since 2011 high continues...it never turned (WEEKLY Chart - you drew one).
Strictly speaking, a case can be made that the shorter term trend since New Year is still up.....we have a higher low in June than we did in May than we did in Jan (but I also said we took out a lower low on Friday, the Brexit low). Both can be true. Based on what I have said so far, I ascribe greater importance to the bearish view, the several signals and Support breaks etc...that I've mentioned, the broader picture I am trying to paint, so to speak....
If you accept this strict definition that I just gave, then one could stay long (but all are in different personal situations, as they say; different entry, different tolerance to pain and vaporized profits, different timeframes, etc...).
So how can you you get confirmation of the trend? Only one way. Wait until it tests the late May / early June $1,199 - $1,205 level. There is no other way. If it bounces off that, we DON'T make a lower low, since the start of the year...but this might be a difficult ask. I know you are prepared...you said so recently.
And if it fails that test?????
Regardless of the outcome of such a test, you pay for confirmation....literally...
{An analogy is use of Moving Averages, Crossovers etc... (which I don't use)...they are lagging...by definition...so when you get the signal, you've missed the initial runup...but you have confirmation that you're on the right side...again, you pay for the "confirmation". There is still no free lunch.}
So, if one has the...courage, stamina.......
Price moves in waves, as we know (normal waves that anyone can see....not Elliot Waves or astrological Patterns). Support broken becomes new Resistance, is tested (we have a new Resistance $1,302 this week which used to be support last week), is breached or rejected, roles reverse, old support becomes new resistance, is tested and on it goes. I think this is the very DNA of Price Action, and the rest is largely fluff....or worse....misleading....
I know you're aware of this level (1,199 etc..). I'm not happy about any of this, I've done well with gold stocks, want it to continue, and not keen to get into boring low return Industrials etc.. I can't make a living that way. I want the bull to continue as much as the next guy / gal. More than most. But I have try and be rational about what I see. I might be wrong, but at least I try to be rational in my analysis ....I can make a reasonable case for it. That's justifiable. Going from the gut or some astrology (you know what I'm saying) or whatever, and being wrong...is not justifiable.

Obviously external events and shocks (like Brexit etc.) can change all this, but I can't predict - or rely - on them. Just now, our old friend Deutsche Bankster is up, despite "bad news" for them...no deal with US Dept of Justice $14 Billion fine...I can't listen to end of the world , global banking collapse predictions, and incorporate them into my thinking...especially when news which "should" be favorable gold sends price down ( briefly mentioned above).
Certainly no Chart can incorporate such future shocks / events.. Who could pick Brexit? But it had a powerful impact.
Sadly, given where we're at now.....it's like it never happened.
What can I say?
Sorry if this sounds like rambling on(which I think it is)....