Hi Ivan. I agree. Nothing is easy or as it seems with the...

Hi Ivan. I agree. Nothing is easy or as it seems with the sharemarket.

Just my viewpoint here, could be way off for your own circumstances. So I have used the words 'we', 'us' and 'our' in a general rather than personal sense.

Seems like our research has led us to the firm conclusion that all is not well in the global economy and serious financial troubles are brewing away. In terms of doing the wider research, we've taken a position grounded on rationality, aka FA. Consequently, we decided to invest in gold or good gold miners as protection against the foreseen troubles, aka risk management by value investing. This is a long-term strategy. Presumably, time is on our side, otherwise it's not a suitable approach to take.

We then hope to see confirmation of the rightness of our decision from the sharemarket short-term action, but don't and therefore come to a tentative conclusion that perhaps all is well in the economic and financial worlds. We have now complicated matters by imbuing emotion into our initial rational position and confounding a long term strategy with short term considerations. Double whammy.

In an open but manipulated sharemarket where greed and fear is rife, the ideal of a level playing field is nothing but a myth. The ones who wield the most money have the greatest influence on the sharemarket because their deep pockets allow them to move the sp. Because a minority can move the sp and the trend of sp creates a chart, I have often wondered whether even the TA charts themselves could be manipulated by these powerful minority. Conversely, it is also possible that the minority's pre-planned chart might form the basis for their sp manipulation. Bordering onto conspiracy, I know.

If so, then the reliability of the TA technique is severely compromised because 'they' have found a chink in the technique's armour. If so again, then we as FA people should stay clear of charts mired in non-transparency because such considerations are not part of the FA program that focuses on long term well managed companies (quality stocks). Eg. The mining equivalent of a non-transparent chart is a non-JORC compliant resources and reserve statement, which is usually disregarded in a rigorous FA valuation of a mining company.

We're not against taking a few trading punts now and then. But these are just temporary and minor fun diversions from the core investment strategy. Like taking a holiday from our main occupation. Cheers. R.