@V*
"Very tricky game at the moment."
But you do have both a trend, and momentum, and both are in sync, but yes, short timeframes can be very hard to play (esp. counter trend).
My own feeling as you know, and I've expressed it many times, for many reasons, is that it's a lot "easier" for POG to fall, than to rise, path of least resistance. (I explained it in detail elsewhere, to an ungrateful audience, and also probably incapable of understanding what I was saying, as recently as last night, and it's not orthodox TA. It's Charts but not TA, tho it does use some basic concepts (Support / Resistance). The main one, Price Action, seems not to be in any textbook, but can easily google it.).
I'd say that to say the current momentum is overwhelmingly bearish is an unexceptional statement. Also, fear is a strong emotion, stronger than greed, and and it feeds upon itself, and gold been falling like a rock (despite "friendly" news, Nov. the worst month for gold in last 2, or 3 years (tho Trump victory was supposed to be a great boost - the opposite as the case).
What trigger is left after Brexit and Trump? Italy was baked in yesterday (days before, looking at price action), and a non-starter. I don't see a trigger. The gold bugs see global econ collapse and WW3, but I can't adopt such poisonous mindset. They must all be heavily underwater. They're hangin' on a prayer, and hope.
This might be useful if on a deathbed (maybe they are), but it's not a credible investment / trading strategy. It's completely toxic.
The bare chart below may or may not be self-explanatory, but it's what I use (and also what professional commodity - and currency - traders use). No indicators. S/R, Key levels, Swing Highs and Lows, obvious reversal signals, the most basic being a pin bar - (which has a precise definition), Bullish / Bearish Engulfing Patterns, and two bar reversals - all at key levels (like yesterday), derived from a DAILY Chart.
There are far more sophisticated strategies which track the repetitive patterns (engineering of price delivery, based on institutional order flow, liquidity runs, etc...)of the Market Makers which I've explained several times, incl last night, but it's unorthodox to grasp, and I got no feedback, so enough of that. But the concepts are similar, tho the tools may differ. Bottom line - you have to think like the Market Makers (not fight them).
Yesterday's Bearish Engulfish Pattern (DAILY) - at the swing low - was not helpful to gold. Perhaps there'll be a delayed reaction (down) in what is a dream setup, or it just won't pan out. That's the market...but more often than not, such setups do play themselves out. i.e. that's the optimal time to enter (a reversal signal at a Key Level, a short, in that example). But never certainty, just the preponderance of the evidence -what else do we have?
As I've said, there's a Shiite load of supply overhang above current to overcome (like pushing a rock uphill), back to 1,375 (and even then, the trend since 2011 remains in place, the trend was never broken). Every retracement has fallen short(er), and continues to do so, to this day. Look left from current, and there's nothing below...just space below....a vacuum...a "liquidity void". The exact opposite of looking above.
I see it being taken out like a knife thru hot butter. Of course nothing goes in a straight line, there will be pullbacks, probably to lower peaks (as we've been seeing for months now, even the Trump candle couldn't make the grade - that was perfectly engineered, its hi of day, to the prior peak, but not a penny higher - have a look), but we're now a lot closer to the low of year than the high of year. Huge damage has been done. Again, I don't see that as an exceptional statement. It should be clear to those with an open mind. Sorry to sound so bearish, but I'm not in the market, and so have no vested interest, just calling it like I see it.
XAUUSD - DAILY
