@V*
"HUI green by last close so Aussie gold stocks may put in a decent bounce Monday. Not sure that 1.12% is so decent", but it needs to be said again, price doesn't move in a straight line, there are always pullbacks, in this case, short covering, dead cat bounce, "bottom pickers", "bargain hunters", and gold Market Maker manipulation etc...always two sides in the markets.
One can always ask why what happened, happened (and of course that's a whole industry, literally) Fundamental Analysis, esp. in the evening news reports. The "experts" have to come up with something for the viewers, it just has to sound half credible. Of course they are as clueless as everyone else but do have an agenda to promote.
In the end, FA is built into the charts, everything is built into the charts, and price is attracted to key levels. Bottom line...for whatever reasons...with 6 successively falling weeks for USPOG (XAUUSD), momentum is overwhelmingly bearish , and any pullback as described above will invariably be short-lived, possibly tradeable but counter trend, and so, both risky and financially unrewarding (poor Risk/Reward ratio). Slim Pickens (like in the movie, Dr. Strangelove).
Looking specifically at BDR, I see it as having closed the week below (what I see as) Support...the Swing low of 31 May; that green candle (swing low), and the red one before that are what immediately preceded / launched the major runup. More so, the red candle, tho I can't explain that again (it's a component of "market structure", I can't say any more than that, I know most don't look at things this way. If it's incomprehensible, don't worry about it. I find all those dazzling tech indicators used by others incomprehensible too - worse than that that, if you ask someone how does it work, how does it help you, they can't explain it. "Oh...the TA book says so." Not credible. So I don't use them, just bare "Price Action").
You'll also see this on DAILY . Price has closed below both that red candle (unorthodox Chart Analysis) and the immediate swing low green candle (very orthodox Chart Analysis). Both are complementary ways of identifying Support (and Resistance) , and conceptually the same. And they happen to yield a similar conclusion.
Look left you'll see a lot of congestion, "traffic", chop (crimson rectangle). So this is clearly a price sensitive region, and everyone sees it, knows it. It was the old Resistance, held on 31 May, and now the new Support. As I said , price is attracted to key levels, and it got there Friday (and then some more), the path of least resistance being down, given the bearish momentum.
This is a key level and must hold. Now it has closed at the low on both Friday, and at the low of the week, below that level (and people see that too), so there should be no lower wick whatsoever on the weekly candle. Just an ugly red candle, body only. That will be second image.
If this level doesn't hold (26 1/4) plus or minus a bit, by the very DNA of markets, it then becomes new Resistance (if it hasn't already...we will see).
Hope this helps. Obviously, I would not be a buyer (other than for a dead cat bounce...and you have to be very nimble)
BDR - DAILY:
BDR - WEEKLY: (the long red arrow at left simply shows lower lows)
