Having read this bulletin board and getting to 'know' Crusader, it is obvious that both sets of management have failed to deliver ANY shareholder value for years on end. It is a pretty woeful situation to say the least.
I am hoping that the new CEO of Stratex, Marcus Englebrecht, will change the Newco for the better. As an extremely long suffering Stratex shareholder I have spoken at length to Marcus twice since his appointment. I clearly expressed my view as what I feel what has been wrong with the company historically. He has assured me things will change.
Following the conversations and doing research on the assets all I can say is that it is a wait and see situation, however there are a number of grounds for optimism.
In the latest Stratex presentation it shows that the Newco is valued right at the bottom of the in ground/enterprise value compared to 15 or so peer companies.
During my discussion with Marcus he suggested that management could deliver, pretty quickly, a near 50% uplift from the current depressed levels, this number has been suggested in the recent presentation if you study the detail carefully.
I am not sure if anyone is aware but Stratex are now operating on Twitter for the 1st time ever, what is interesting is the 50+ people they are following, namely just about every media and PR outfit in the City including City editors from a number of national UK newspapers. There is no doubt in my mind they will be extremely active on a PR front once the Newco is formed. Marcus is aware Stratex has been PR poor in the past.
Notwithstanding all the above I think we must not underestimate the power of potentially new institutional investors who may be about to buy into the Newco. These guys have the ability to really move the market price.
I also think Stephen Copulos wants a return on his 20% stake, I note he has bought $3m of stock in Crusader at circa 40c a share in the past.
Last and not least it looks like we may be about to enter a long bull phase in gold, the new presentation shows the Newco will have 3m in ground ounces + a 30% equity stake in Thani Stratex which could soon be about to declare a maiden JORC resource from their work in North and East Africa. The Newco may attract takeover interest due to its current bombed out rating if management fail to perform.
I am cautiously optimistic, accordingly I have been buying Stratex stock at current levels, the company has a negative EV currently selling below cash!
CAS Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
