Today's $tockhead interesting quote at the end !?!
RBC’s Alex Barkley says continued strong spot prices will be key to keeping the value proposition in the Aussie gold sector, which is still trailing a stunning run in bullion prices fuelled by war and slowing inflation.
Australian dollar gold prices are up over $3725/oz, a 20%+ increase YTD, and in touching distance of US$2400/oz.
Barkley says gold equities in RBC’s coverage universe are up only 8%.
That’s rough buddy.
Some of that is stock specific. The development of the McPhillamy’s project in NSW has been removed from RBC’s Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) forecasts after a capex increase that was nothing short of disastrous.
But otherwise gold prices should support stronger outcomes despite the impact of wet weather on operations in the March quarter (already largely flagged by Gold Road (ASX:GOR), Northern Star (ASX:NST), Capricorn (ASX:CMM) and more.)
“We find select value on our base case forecasts, and more broad-based upside should the higher spot price be maintained. Key forecasts changes include removing McPhillamy’s from RRL forecasts,” Barkley said.
“This leaves a simplified, unhedged and high-earning WA miner with an 18% FY25E FCF yield. For Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) we incorporate an operating multiple into our valuation. Despite lifting near-term costs we still find an 11% FY25E FCF yield.
“RRL and BGL are both rated Outperform, as are high quality NST, which remains the go-to ASX gold exposure, and De Grey Mining (ASXEG), which has near-term news upside and long-term gold leverage.”
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