gold production - bye bye good times

Consolidated my thoughts on TRY which I held till recently. From the Preliminary Report:

Bulchina - mining ceased during April. On low grade stockpiles from August 2004.

Cornishman - mining ceased during February - milling stops in September 2004.

Sertalo project [Brazil] completes mining around March 2005 - a great earner at $A64/oz [bye bye].

TRY have one new resoource area - Lord Henry - the one that brought me into the stock.

I was shocked when the initial figures came out in the quarterly at 3.7 million tonnes at 2.7g/t for 319,000 oz resource. This is not even a reserve figure and as for the grade - yipes.

Lord Henry production starts around March 2005 with 2.7 g/t material to be trucked to Bulchina.

Bulchina at a [generous] 500,000 tpa milling at 95% efficiency with a 2.7 g/t operation produces 40,000 oz per year probably at a cash cost of $A350/oz + say $80 to give a total cost of $A430/oz. With a margin of $A140/oz a result of $A5.6 million. Write off $3 million for exploration and $1 million fot overheads getting near breakeven in 2005.

Like any exploration outfit they may find something but it will be hard to get into production under 18 months. Cannot think of any reasonable production TRY can buy with a $20 million balance.

Consequently, in my opinion, on the public information, TRY seems expensive at $150 million on a known production basis.

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