Thanks Danis. If what you say is correct then maybe they hold...

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Crom Valen

44,246 Posts.

2012

13/07/16

11:01

Post #: 18257557
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Originally posted by danis1977 ↑

Hi Crom, In respone to "except in the minds of some posters who want a mine to start tomorrow and are doing sums based on prices as of today based on todays JORC"
I think you will find mate that todays prices are very relevant and will have implications for the revised Kempfield JORC you mention.
The commodity price assumptions used in the ore reserve statement will be based on todays prices and will directly effect cut off grades used in the revised JORC for Kempfield, there for determining the overall size of the ore reserve, which will impact on our feasibility studies moving forward.
A noticeable change from the 2012 JORC statement will be the price assumption used to calculate the Silver ore reserve, unless we see a dramatic spike in the silver price in the near term before the updated JORC is released, even then they will probably use an average 2016 silver price. If the updated JORC is released this year you will probably find the silver price assumption used will be closer to US$20 rather then the previous US $30 used in the 2012 report.
So this obviously will effect the cut off grades used, and will there for have a negative impact on the size of the 2012 reported silver ore reserve. Hopefully the exploration and drilling since then will make up the difference and best case scenario the silver ore reserve will increase.
We will definitely see an increase in the Zinc reserve based on the fact that the zinc price assumption used in 2012 is relatively close to todays prices.
You really only have to look at updated JORC ore reserves for any Australian gold or silver producer from 2013 to 2015 to see the effect of price assumptions on cut off grades and therefor ore reserves over that period as the price of silver and gold fell.
I know this is hotcopper and people generally don't won't to discuss anything that might seem negative to the companies outlook, but this is the reality of the situation with regard to the Kempfield resource upgrade in relation to their Silver ore reserve, It will be based on this years silver price regardless of whether management is quietly confident of the silver price going higher in the future.
Besides that, I think ARD's current resource is undervalued by the market and in my opinion our MC could easily double based on what we have without further exploration success.
Managements goal with regard to the Kempfield base metals project is to add another 5 million t of high grade resource to the overall resource before moving forward with feasibility studies.
As yourself and others have mentioned any high grade gold deposit discoveries will greatly support the economics of the project.

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Thanks Danis. If what you say is correct then maybe they hold off on the JORC and any revised feasibility study until further drilling in Kempfield and surrounds is concluded, while silver price continues to improve as per the recent trend.

The immediate focus of the company should go towards drilling, as the manifesto they raised fresh capital on.

ARD Price at posting: 3.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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