Hi Pete,You know my views on this from an A$ perspective...

Hi Pete,

You know my views on this from an A$ perspective although this week's Economist does paint a slightly different picture of the US$. That said, the article was still +ve for global and US growth, but hesitant on the Euro and the EU economies.

Also a very interesting article on the state of play in Argentina (not out of the woods, yet) - refer p37.

But, for those wondering about the CAD in Australia, vs that in the USA - ours is now above 6%, whilst the USA CAD is trending back to 5% (and below).

The market indicators page on p98 also shows some startling evidence on world trade trends (according to Morgan Stanley. In particular, year on year growth in imports of goods and services in 2003 over that of 2002, is now likely to show the following:
1)
China leading the pack with 40% YoY growth in 2003;
2)
Argentina, 30% YoY growth;
3)
Turkey, 20% YoY growth;
4)
India, 20% YoY growth;
5)
Australia, in 8th place, with 10% YoY growth;
6)
the United States in 18th place, with 4% YoY growth;
7)
Japan in 22nd place (out of 28 measured countries), with 3% YoY growth;
8)
Brazil with contracting import volumes; and
9)
with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea gaining the most from China's import growth.

I will now try and retrieve a copy of the report and examine in more detail.

But, what does this suggest?

If the trends are maintained, then:
1)
external balance with be restored to the USA;
2)
China's will deteriorate; and
3)
Australia's will worsen.