The market is the market. Everyone will price in risk their own way. I don't like "peer comparisons" because each project has it's own set of challenges and it's near impossible to find "like for like" ounces. Look at AJM and PLS, two neighboring deposits who both managed to go into production but have had two very different stories.
Personally, I like to consider the end goal being a mine in production, at that point the NPV should equal the market cap, then look at the current price, challenges to get there and the potential return.
At the moment 5.1moz @ 0.4g/t (Korbel) is almost certain - in the process of moving 2.8moz from inferred to indicated
The scoping study has already outlined this is profitable to mine, hence almost certain that these ounces will move to reserves.
So our major hurdles to achieving a $1.9b NPV lie in the environmental studies and permits. I know, I know, "tier 1 mining jurisdiction" well, pull the finger out and get a mining permit (I know the process has started) and of course, funding cappex. Sounds like work has started. One way or another, their will be massive dilution at this point.
So - if am comfortable on a $1.9b NPV and see a 50/50 dilution to fund cappex (either through cap raises or sale of partial interest to a major Gold mining company) , that means the current shares on issue will theoretically be worth $1b (plus LITM, TNR and RotorX)
(I see significant growth in LITM on it's own so don't want to complicate back of the envelope calcs)
Say current market cap is about $50m (NVA less LITM), that gives us 20 bags for about a 7 year time frame (from last presentation, 1st gold pour 2025, I've added a couple of years)
Now, compare this to a relatively low risk investment like buying a house. 20% cash down, borrow 80%, rent covers the loan. 7 years time, property price hopefully doubles, giving you 5 bags on your original investment (the 20% deposit).
Hence for a Higher Risk investment you'd want at least 10 bags in the same time frame.
Errors in the above estimates: NPV will increase once the cappex is paid for (as it was subtracted from previous figures) , hence dilution wont be as dramatic AND we still have the upside of additional Korbel ounces, RPM and other deposits.
Hence, you could pay up to $1.10 a share (market cap of $200m - $100m LITM - $100m Estelle) and hope to make 10 bags in 7years
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