I found the following comments really useful and they have given me cause to think about holding gold stocks at this time.
How best to position a portfolio for rising bond yields (and falling bond prices)?
As discussed here before, the Australian bond market is basically the high-yield section of the sharemarket. Especially, but not only, the banks. In simple terms, rising yields mean falling prices unless earnings go up to compensate.
There’s more. Stocks with a high payout ratio will do worst because there is less scope to raise the dividend, and high price earnings (PE) ratio stocks will do less well because a low discount rate (based on the bond yield) is embedded in the valuation.
Also, companies that are just chugging along with little or no earnings growth will fall further behind because their only attraction is stable yield. And finally gold stocks do worse because the relative attraction of gold deteriorates when interest rates rise (because gold doesn’t pay any interest at all, which means the gap to those that do increases).
So specifically which stocks?
Well, according to Credit Suisse, the 10 stocks that have done worst, relative to the ASX 200 index since July 2016, whenever the US 10-year bond yield has risen by 10 basis points or more, are: Resolute Mining, Northern Star, Regis Resources, Newcrest, Saracen Minerals, Mayne Pharma, Vocus, Iron Mountin, Sydney Airport, Transurban.
In other words – gold and high PE stocks.
I was overweight in goldies until recently but have reduced my holding in this sector to just one stock now.
GLTAH, and avagoodweekend!
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