After doing some reading on general market's i have come to the conclusion that gold will not be seeing a massive spike in price with a black swan event.
Main reasons are this:
1. US job figures are better then average.
Wile there will be a few who say the figures are manipulated. The main thing to notice is that there is not out of the ordinary defaults on loans or no information i could find.
Also after speaking with a friend that lives in NY, he said if it was so bad i would be bumping into my own social network with a few saying i lost my job and or how hard it is to get a job. It's just not the case.
2. President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has come to say if there is more turmoil around Euro markets, then QE will be there to help it.
3. I'm not sure if you guy's pay attention to the US market charts but it is very clear that the plunge protection team are working hard on it. The DOW every morning during the interest rate rise would spike up on open and close lower by end of day. I also noticed this early on this month but in the last week it's just been more swing. If the market was in panic sell mode and all brokers are saying sell on any rally, then who is buying?
Markets are down and may go down a little more but it's no crash, more like a correction or hard work trying to slow a crash from happening.
What i would be keeping a close eye on is two things.
China market and what it does this year. Ultimately wile China is slowing down, it still has a fantastic GPD rate even if the figures are a little off 5% would still be good. But what i will be looking for is what it will do with its Currency and will help Venezuela to get out of trouble.
China currency down means it will come at the expense of export growth in other countries by slowing them down.
There is also story's China want a seat at the trans-pacific partnership table and will look to do so in October. What i am hearing is that in order for China to have it's currency recognised around the globe, they will need to back there currency by gold to have some substance to it. That could make gold and the Renminbi priceless so to speak as questions will be asked of other nations on how much gold does everyone really have ( i doubt US has much at all ) but it would still take a lot of trust in China.
The other part has way to much looking into but i will just keep it short here. BRIC Bank is there to help other nations that need a hand, they trade in gold and and non US currency. Venezuela is in some serous debt even though it has more oil then Saudi Arabia....
Go figure, but the low oil price seen today is a result of getting these massive assets of this debt ridden country at the same time making Russia weaker just like in the 80'tys.
Basically if China bail them out and Russia hold off US invasion of Ukraine and Syria with out going into default them self due to low oil prices, then the BRIC bank would defiantly be a force to reckon with and US dollar could collapse making gold rise to hell knows.
In any event it's unlikely to see markets, gold, currency go crazy 90%+ in either direction. There is always time to act and make an informed move going by history.
