GOLD Threatens Additional Downside Pressure, page-234

here's a pic summary of last released COT

a lift in the commercials to 2nd highest STO size in 14 months and and larger than prior to the largest gold selling selling onslaught into june 2013

conversely the emotive retail are at largest peak during the same period except the start of the onslaught when they were 26k long v 21k long now
at the onset of the onslaught it would be fair to say the retail crowd were still extremely manic on the upside for metals, so, relatively speaking, we could infer, if the next move down was starting now and likely to be a deep plunge then retail is inline with that but commercials, while large participation, have not signalled that a larger decline is underway, rather, we are about to get a larger pullback than the 1212 target i have cited here

we could also infer that a peak in price and a "look" of a decline to come is the reason the retail has not totally bought into the idea that a weekly downtrend has found a low and commercials are not at extreme STO pos's because theyre looking to capture the downside but because theyre doing what the facility allows them to do: hedge

there are large monthly periods when pog correlates parallel to $DX, they rise together and while that doesnt back up the idea that contract size does not denote absolute price direction, it does allow for the idea that as we've just come off a 5 year killer bear for metals other extremes such as the participation and extreme contract size can exist with price rising

of course, i am story telling here and the 'obvious' look of the contract sizes plus the 'obvious' shape of price, after the large upswing, what looks looks like a peak, does suggest the 1212 wont hold and i am fairly confident the 'easy' money of this upswing is now done and we're in for arduous pricing, longterm, while there's upticks in inflation, deflation is apparent if only in interest rates (obviously a convo for another thread)

i still like the structure and level being levels we have a clear set of levels to go by if the structure is valid

summary: just by numbers alone we can infer we are going back down albeit to probe into the recent pog rise, but, it's a loose anecdotal bias, levels are better observed than a gut trade on COT numbers alone