Yes agree with you re your comments re gold stocks not going up in a bear market but evidence so far is that despite recent quiet performance gold stocks today are still well ahead of 12 months ago, when the rest of the market has slipped badly. I think the adage re gold being a 'store of wealth' is applicable. If you want to hold the value of your wealth in tough times gold is the place to be.
I agree also that the producer reduction in hedging is nothing short of an amazing change in the industry and is the current main driver for the gold price rise so far, but add to that the fall in the US dollar in the last 6 months. The big fund managers have to put their funds somewhere and the falling US dollar doesnt help overseas investors, so they will put their money elsewhere. why not gold when everything else including bonds seem to offer no return.
Falling gold production has started but not yet accelerated and should do so over the next year or two. It will take many years for gold production to be turned around as exploration expenditure has barely recovered at all and until that happens gold production will go nowhere. So this influence is going to be sttrong on the gold price for some time.
The other big factor is Jewellery consumption. That has fallen in recent times due to the higher prices and I think that explains the current price churning. However once people realise the gold price is not going to go any lower they will start to chase prices higher again.
The fundamentals still look good to me. The chart only needs to break 325-330 and everybody will be climbing on board every gold stock they can lay their hands on.
