Hi All,
As there has been a lot of posts on BLK and with a lot of those not relating to fundamental or technical analysis of BLK, I thought I'd dig up and throw together a bit of a summary of the FA & TA posted so far by all posters and I'll throw in some new bits.
Good little summary for the new faces onboard as well as a refresher for the old faces.
Please note that some of the numbers have changed since the original posts/images were posted/created.
Anyway:
--> You might want to make a cuppa and sit down for a bit of a (re)read!!
TA/charts:
Let's start with the easy/shorter bit as there hasn't been too many charts posted:
As posted by
@Stockrocker:
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As posted by
@8horse:
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As posted by me when it was at 4c:
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FA/Fundamentals:
BLK achieved record monthly production results in January and then smashed those records in February (and March is looking very likely to smash February too):
View attachment 1041337
And the nice infopgrahic from
@jfer3 after the February results came out:
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BLK is currently a cash-making machine and is making money almost as fast as Regal Funds Management (joke lol).
From Net Debt (Cash less Debt) of $20.6m in January:
View attachment 1041343
To Net Debt (Cash less Debt) of $12.4m in February:
View attachment 1041346
Drilling:
Apart from record Gold Production for the last couple of months, BLK are currently drilling and:
- proving up their resources
- adding more resources
Many targets over 55km's of strike.
Expect plenty of drilling news to start coming through shortly (they
have $30m+ cash).
From the 19/03/2018 drilling announcement:
View attachment 1041349
And from previous announcements:
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Peer Comparisons:
Some info and
comparisons to other Goldies (thx to
@8horse):
***
I've compiled ASX announcements into the following table and chart for comparison only.
There are many other factors to be considered as limited facts can be included in a table and chart.
As at today, BLK, is valued at A$18/oz for 6.5Moz JORC gold resource.
BLK: Cash and bullion of $31.4 million and secured debt of $43.8 million at 28 Feb 2018, net debt A$12.4m, reduced by $8.2m from the operating cash flow over last two months.
Recent production performance:
All in sustaining costs (AISC) reduced to A$912/oz in Feb 18, a 21% decrease on Jan’18 (A$1,158/oz)
New record monthly gold production in Feb 18 of 6,713oz (Jan’18: 6,498oz)
Stage 1: Free Milling Mine:
- Initial 3.5 years free milling mine to mine 250,000oz at AISC A$1,100 - A$1,200/oz, started January 2018.
- Free milling resource: 22.8Mt @1.76g/t, 1.3Moz to support future expansion
Stage 2: Medium Term Growth:
- Initial 9 year mine plan for 1.5Moz production (Most of DFS costs already spent)
- Capex: A$114m
- Annual production 207koz at AISC A$1,058/oz for first six years
- NPV8%: A$360m ; IRR 123%
- 6.5Moz JORC gold resource support expand of mine life
Resource Growth Potential:
- Large land holding of +1,100km2
- 55km of strike
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***
I put up a quick comparison of
RSG vs BLK:
If you want you can add in the
BLK AISC at $1,150 for 2018 (average of forecast of $1,100-$1,200) even though a bit conservative since
FEB was $912!
You can also add
RSG's AISC for 2018 at $1,280 per their ann below.
Also
looks like BLK is making about the same amount of money as RSG (gross profit - $30m per 6 months or $5m per month).
RSG market cap is $900m - BLK is at $92m.
View attachment 1041385
I did a detailed analysis of
BLK vs MOY which has provided the next/
short-term target for BLK of 11c based off this comparison:
***
Closest peer to BLK is MOY based on
both being in Australia, both being producers, and both currently producing a similar amount of gold.
My first,
short-term target for BLK is just over 12c which will mean BLK having the
same EV as MOY - that should surely be a given.
From there, we will see
what additional value the market/Insto's will give BLK over MOY due to:
-
BLK targeting/on track
to produce at least 5koz-10koz more gold in 2018 than MOY (
BLK 80-90Koz vs
MOY 75-80Koz)
-
BLK targeting
production costs which
are $140/oz lower than MOY (
BLK $1,150/oz vs
MOY $1,290/oz) (
BLK actuals in JAN-FEB 2018 are $255/oz lower than MOY)
-
BLK targeted
expansion will
produce more than twice as much gold per annum than MOY (
BLK 207koz pa vs
MOY 100koz pa)
-
BLK targeted e
xpansion AISC are likely to be much lower than MOY (
BLK $1,058 vs MOY still to release theirs)
And
once the market does give BLK that deserved valuation which is higher than MOY/higher than a 12c share price on BLK due to the above points; then we can see
how much of an additional valuation the market will give BLK due to:
-
BLK having a 5 times bigger Gold Resource (
BLK 6.5Moz vs
MOY 1.3Moz)
-
BLK having a 6.5 times bigger Gold Reserve (
BLK 1.2Moz vs
MOY 186Koz)
-
BLK being able to add more resources via exploration since June 2016 than what MOY has in total (
BLK added 1.4Moz,
MOY has 1.3Moz total)
-
BLK currently drilling and likely to add resources which are again likely to increase BLK's resources by more than what MOY has in total??
View attachment 1041388
@jfer3 put together a nice infographic on BLK vs MOY:
View attachment 1041391
I also shared my recent experience with
SYA and the balls of steel required to ride the big life-changing ones, including through some red days, while waiting for the big announcement that's around the corner:
View attachment 1041394
We covered off on the
BLK deal with SO4 from last week which gave BLK
an added 290km2 to its existing tenure of 1,110km2 (
and 55km of strike).
View attachment 1041397
Our nice and friendly neighbours (who are
run by the Legend/Gun that is Ian Middlemas - if you've never heard of him some research will go nicely)
will dewater the Williamson pit for us before we mine it!
View attachment 1041403
The deal with SO4 points to a
potential deal with someone else for
BLK's Nickel/Cobalt assets (farmout, JV, Spin-Off like ARL):
***
That
$15+ billion Nickel/Cobalt resource might get its own deal, farm-in or spin-out.
More on the Nickel/Cobalt as I posted a few weeks ago (
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/gold-turnaround-story-of-2018.4032121/page-8?post_id=31227043):
Current Nickel Laterite resource is:
-
80.5Mt at 0.77% Ni, 0.058% Co
- In-ground value of this resource alone is
worth: $15B+.
-
Resource extends
over 19km and is
30m deep.
<-------- this point is crazy: 30m deep resource
- Only
limited drilling done - more drilling = bigger resource
There's also massive High-Grade Nickel Sulphide potential:
- Numerous targets generated
- 1m @ 6.38% Ni + 0.50% Cu + 0.11% Co
- 0.3m @ 6.64% Ni + 0.26%Cu + 0.09% Co
Nickel is all over the grounds and
very close to their plant -
plant is centrally located which means that
everything is within 20km from the plant.
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And out of the big number of
recent write-ups on BLK and its record performance, the favourite one:
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There was other great posts by
@Wheres-Wally and
@8horse and a lot of great technical info by
@nihilism as well other great posts by others.
Cheers,
GB.
