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I think the main issue would be uncertainties about ASIC. The...

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valueseek

110 Posts.

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17/03/18

12:30

Post #: 31826932
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Originally posted by chris1983 ↑

Not sure what’s going on with the threads but all I care about is making profits and with gold price pushing upwards in the midst of higher grades and continued low strip ratios that means continued serious margins for BLK. A lot of the posts on here are just pip traders. When you actually put your knowledge on the line and back your research in and hold longer than a day or two that’s when you make the real $. Not sure if anyone has actually put in the time (it takes about 5 minutes) but you can actually work out roughly how many ounces they will get this month.

Say they do exactly 150,000 tonnes like last month.

150,000 x 1.7 grams per tonne.

= 255,000 grams of gold.

Convert to Troy ounces

255000 x .0322 = 8211 Troy ounces

This still needs to be multiplied by recovery. Let’s use 91% even though they have forecast 92-93 %

8211 x .91 = 7472 ounces of gold

Now you can run calculations above on last months numbers and your going to be out 200 odd ounces which is due to rock density but it’s close enough.

I personally think they could drop AISC to the low 800 but I’ll use 850 to work their margins in the March quarter

I reckon a minimum 800 margin.

7472 ounces * 800 = $5,977,608

So I reckon 6 million free cash flow this month. So how will the market react to that? I’m betting up.

The market will also be watching tonnes mined and stockpiles and will be eyeing the strip ratio for mining in March but I think they will keep the strip ratio down. They already lost enough money stripping back to get to the higher grades and are finally reaping the rewards.

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I think the main issue would be uncertainties about ASIC. The other issue would be the fluctuation in POG.
The market would have a far favourable response if the performance from last month is repeated in the next two - 3 months at least. This may allow the share price to get back to high 10 cents

BLK Price at posting: 8.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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