John Paulson, has been quite vocal about the future prospects...

John Paulson, has been quite vocal about the future prospects for sharply higher gold prices

It is also believed that John Paulson had been a buyer of gold for the past month ashe all but admitted to in an interviewlast week. This past Friday gold closed lower and the dollar was up; making it more likely that Paulson did indeed buy during the time span. The play now is to look for Friday behavior going forward to identify when/if the next buyer shows up. As for the recent buyer, watch the open interest. Why Friday? It is too early to share that except to repeat the axiom: bad news comes out Friday after the close. Data over the past 4 reporting weeks indicate that a large non-commercial trader has amassed as many as 40,000 COMEX gold contracts, the equivalent of 4 million ounces of gold. Do not get excited in the short term however. The December contract remains on board for 3 months which gives plenty of time for the market to gyrate lower. In fact as risk managers one should look at the buying this way: $40,000 contracts were bought and gold did not rally much at all. This is a patient buyer who did not buy in a rush. It also will likely be a bad situation if the long player as to sell less patently. We dont think he will.

Buying during those 4 weeks also caught the eye of Ted Butler. That entirely different analysis gives ours even more credence. In addition to the concentrated long position being among the highest on record, even more interesting is that the sharp increase began during the reporting week corresponding to the recent deliberate smash down in gold and silver prices into August 9. What this indicates is that the large non-commercial trader, most likely included in the Other Large Trader reporting category, bought most aggressively into that price smash – apparently by design.Source Butler goes on: For the record, nearly 40,000 contracts of COMEX gold futures has a total notional dollar value of $7.2 billion (at $1800 per ounce) and each dollar move higher or lower would equate to $4 million for the holder, and $400 million for each $100 move in the gold price. Minimum initial margin requirements would run $8250 per contract or $330 million for 40,000 contracts.My best guess is that the position in question was acquired at roughly a $1770 per ounceaverage price. At the same time, a prominent large investor, John Paulson, has been quite vocal about the future prospects for sharply higher gold prices. He is someone who is quite capable of amassing such a large COMEX gold position. In addition, Paulson has publicly remarked that he intends to deploy leverage designed to produce an ultimate return on gold of 25 to 50 times his original investment. Certainly, a large core long position in COMEX gold futures augmented with other derivatives, such as options, would seem to provide the opportunity for such outsized returns. Paulson is nothing if not patient. We also think his announcement was not to get someone to hold his bags. More likely a signal to other whales to play with him.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-09-12/goldfix-doubt-kills-bull-markets