"With the benefit of hindsight I wouldn't exactly be inclined to describe it post event as 'sophisticated expertise' would you still ?"
That is how it was presented.
A subjective probability is anyone's opinion of what the probability is for an event. While this may not seem very scientific, it is often the best you can do when you neither have data nor credible theory to guide you. In the case in question it involved the opinion of gold miners, bankers, brokers, traders and investors.
"What are the applications of subjective probability?
Subjective probability follows the same rules as objective probability. The only differences are in how the probabilities are assigned. Subjective probability is used in decision making under uncertainty when the outcomes cannot be accurately predicted. Mathematics has been developed to formalize the concept of subjective probabilities. Probability theory is the mathematical basis of the theory of decision making under uncertainty. The Bayesian method uses subjective probabilities in order to make decisions. Subjective probability is used in social sciences such as psychology, sociology, political science, economics etc. It is also used in decision making like medical diagnosis, making business decisions etc."
