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My hunch is that pent-up demand is non existent. Demand has been...

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wallisd366

1,080 Posts.

172

28/01/22

08:49

Post #: 59178705
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Originally posted by Infose: ↑

The POG down when tensions in the Ukraine border are escalating is in a drastic contrast to what happened when Leonid Brezhnev decided to move the 40th Army at the end of 1979 to the boarder with Afghanistan.

News from BBC.

The US economy expanded at its fastest rate in decades last year as it roared back from pandemic lockdowns.Official figures from the Commerce Department showed the economy grew by 5.7% - its best performance since 1984.But analysts are expecting growth to slow this year, as the government scales back stimulus spending and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.Other risks include high inflation and threats from new Covid variants, such as Omicron.The World Bank is predicting the US economy will grow by 3.7% this year, in line with other forecasts."The Omicron wave means the economy is starting 2022 on a much weaker footing and we expect growth to disappoint over the rest of this year too," said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics."

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So, the question is how much is pent-up demand? "

Understanding Pent-Up Demand Pent-up demand is often seen immediately following a recession or depression. When the economic climate is uncertain, consumers tend to hold off making purchases, opting instead, when possible, to build their savings.On an aggregate level, demand is believed to never tail off. Consumers just sometimes prefer to defer making purchases during a recession until they get their finances back in order again and feel more confident that better times are ahead.These characteristic delays in purchasing goods usually result in a backlog of demand being unleashed on the market when signs of a recovery emerge. Quite often, pent-up demand accelerates the economic recovery period immediately following an economic downturn, thanks to a sudden increase in consumer confidence and spending.In a conventional economic cycle, pent-up demand builds during recessions alongside high rates of consumers saving money. At this point, central banks will typically attempt to breathe life back into the economy by lowering interest rates and encouraging people to spend more, paving the way for all the pent-up demand that has accumulated to be unleashed."

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My hunch is that pent-up demand is non existent. Demand has been brought forward by years due to ludicrously low borrowing costs. Everyone has blown their load on real estate, meme stocks and crypto, they have nothing more to spend.
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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