This link may help
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-why-petrodollar-could-end-soon-harshad-shah-ltqaf/
Is the 50 years of petrodollar coming to an end?
The 50-year era of the petrodollar is facing potential disruption, marked by recent diplomatic optics and changing dynamics. Secretary of State Blinker’s visit to the Saudi crown prince in a tent, rather than the palace, symbolizes a shift in the relationship dynamics, highlighting diminished reliance on Saudi Arabia compared to the 1970s.
The petrodollar system originated during the Yom Kippur war in 1973 when the US, facing economic challenges and an oil embargo, struck a deal with Saudi Arabia. This arrangement has favored the Middle East more than the US, pouring wealth into Gulf States, Iraq, and Iran. However, major changes are underway. Russia, a key player in the BRICS alliance, has announced upcoming transformations in cross-border transactions, signaling a shift in the global economic order. China and Russia, now closely collaborating with Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries, are challenging the traditional petrodollar alliance. As the US watches these changes unfold, tensions are rising, especially with oil prices becoming shaky. The US, back at peak oil production, may not want prices to surge, causing irritation in Saudi Arabia. This has the potential to lead to an oil price war, with Saudi Arabia possibly lowering oil prices to render shale production unprofitable—a move echoing past strategies. This geopolitical and economic landscape contributes to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the petrodollar.
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Conclusion: The demise of the petrodollar could usher in a transformative era, disrupting the current dynamic. Commodity-exporting nations might break free from the dollar, opting to peg their currencies to a basket of commodities. Importing countries would need these currencies to settle payments for energy and agricultural imports, leading to appreciating currencies in commodity-exporting regions due to supply deficits. This shift could mark the beginning of a multipolar world with bilateral trade agreements replacing the petrodollar-centered order. Regions heavily reliant on raw material imports, such as Europe and Japan, may face challenges, while countries like Russia, India, and China could strengthen economic and geopolitical ties through bilateral agreements. The impact on the United States might be less severe due to its domestic-focused economy and potential self-sufficiency in raw materials. However, the decline of the petrodollar could still result in increased inflation and interest rates.
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