So, if I understand, you find it more probable that there was...

So, if I understand, you find it more probable that there was some collusion, perhaps, still recognizing you don't know with absolute certainty it wasn't just a coincidence. I find that to be a healthy middle ground, personally. We all have our biases

Perpetuating misinformation by passing speculations off as fact is still reckless behaviour, however. Even if you're right 99% of the time, you can still be wrong.