So Alby, your "big jump" seems to be tied to 4 US aircraft carriers getting involved if needed and Israel doing the bombings.
You didn't mention what sort of "jump" happens if Iran decides they have had enough of being poked and starts a serious missile saturation of Israel from all sides (by the three H's as well as themselves). And what happens if one (or more) of the "fully laden" carriers stop floating?
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