@Ophir - spot on! But there's more!
"China data weakens, Puerto Rico defaults, Japan falls, crude drops, another E&P company defaults, failed M&A deal, US macro data dumps...
and stocks surge..."
There may be a job for you with ZH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...r-down-oil-down-gold-down-economy-down-stocks
Lot of good charts in that link, as always..
Of particular relevance:
"Crude was monkey-hammrered (sic) after hopeful algos ran it higher in the early going {wombat: I see it down exactly $1.00, as I write}. Silver slumped as did copper and gold kept its head despite the weaker USD..." - Despite the weaker dollar? Surely the reverse is typically the case?
You did pretty well with your DOW call - not up 200 (which I suspect was an arbitrary number), but pretty well, up 117 points, S&P up 16 (closed 2,081). As we know, the old story, bad news is good news, the 2015 mantra, until oil prices took over and guided markets. So now oil falls over 2%...and markets seems not to care. Fear of the Fed is back, it seems to me. I'm more and more attracted to Jeremy Grantham's view (expressed above, by me) of a fully fledged equities bubble at S&P - but not now - but at 2,250-2,300, some time between Nov. Election and shortly after. That is expected to be the "big one" people here sometimes talk about. Until then, don't fight the tape.
"Weaker dollar" is a bit of an understatement. I see it perilously close to testing and indeed penetrating support on a WEEKLY level. But, surprisingly, it disconnected from causing gold to rise, as we've seen in the past (same for oil). Perhaps the break is not decisive enough? I don't know.
Here the final countdown for US, Monday March 2, 2016:
Small caps ($RUT) and NASDAQ ($COMPQ) , boosted by beaten down biotech(?) , seemed to do the best:
