Hi Slange and all,

I agree the Japanese bond market is a long way from a free market I believe the government own around 70% of the bonds.

I think if we see the Japanese 40-year note go above 4% it may start the conflagration worldwide.

I try and watch for the pointers for when to expect to see the excreta hit the rotary air moving device.

But a man can’t be everywhere and cover all bases; however, in my case it’s just for interest. I believe I have done as much as I can by holding physical Gold and Silver and having a couple of bolt -holes in different hemispheres (saving up for Mars with Elon.) for when the inevitable happens.

I had no particular skin in the game, but I had thought the next big bank to fail would be Deutsche Bank, but whilst looking that way 2023 I was surprised that it was credit Suisse that blew up behind me!

Being wrong in 2023 caused me no financial loss; however, perhaps I was not incorrect merely a little early. Deutsche Bank has for a long time had a great deal of exposure to commercial real estate and the German auto industry and as we now know both of these sectors are seeing high levels of stress.

At this stage I guess we don’t know exactly what direction the next financial crisis will start from. It could be Japanese 40-year bonds at 4% a European bust up a Uk bank and pension explosion or even something we are not remotely aware of.

One thing we may need to consider is from the item linked below. With Uncle Sam looking to settle and re-sell some 7-9 Trillion of dollars of treasury debt during 2025 having to do so at above 5% for the ten-year note may be problematic.

This Moody’s downgrade (and timing) looks to me like a severe kick in the orchestra stalls for the current administration. I certainly don’t think Mr. Trump and the boys will be very happy with this news. With tariffs on then delayed then off again I would not be surprised to see yet another U-turn decision regarding the man holding the reins down at the Federal Reserve.

May16 (Reuters) - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on Fridaydue to concerns about the nation's growing, $36 trillion debt pile, in a movethat could complicate President Donald Trump's efforts to cut taxes and sendripples through global markets.

Moody'scuts America's pristine credit rating, citing rising debt | Reuters

Another interesting fact from the USA is regarding how the companies are using their massed profits gained from their offshoring of manufacturing jobs to China.

These very large amounts of dollars could be put too many uses.

They could be issued to shareholders as dividends or used for research and development or acquiring other assets and thus growing the company and increasing true shareholder value. That’s the kind of thing one would see in China.

However, many of the US companies prefer to use these obscene profits for share buybacks. Reducing the number of shares on issue will increase the share price and ensure the directors look like masterminds and worthy of their salaries and bonus packages!

In 2024 I read that the S&P 500 companies spent a record of $942.5 Billion on share buybacks. This surpasses the previous 2023 $795.2 Billion figure!

As I say great deal for the directors bonuses but not so great for shareholders and company employees. One can only guess that had that 942.5 Billion Dollars been ploughed back into business how many new high paid jobs there might be today!

Personally, I think these shortsighted actions of the heads of these companies and of western governments generally are not serving their citizens well at all. One that truly gripes me from the Australian perspective is the outright rejection of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

Note to any politicians reading these threads toast a piece of bread butter it on one side then drop it from about a meter high, note how it lands generally it will land butter down and dry side up. Remember this exercise when making any crucial political decisions ( Think B&RI) because in my opinion you guys have yet to fathom out just what side your bread is buttered on.

The China switch away from soybeans from the USA to Brazil was probably not all that easy; however, it is now a done deal. Likewise Australian Iron Ore could be lost to other suppliers due to more incompetence in Canberra.

They don’t build these cape class bulk carries for nothing.!!!

170capesize bulkers needed to ship iron ore from world’s biggest new mine project,analysts say | TradeWinds

Talk about living in interesting times! Cheers