@martis I'm afraid I don't see a lot of meat in the above Post, but largely throwaway lines (tho I'm largely, but not entirely, in agreement, pls read below, pls take the time, it's all a repeat of what I've written before).
Of course it's a "matter of time". And what, exactly is a "matter of time". .Tomorrow (as you said yesterday, and the day before)? A week? A month? 6 months? A year? I actually broached this timeframe very specifically this week, and repeat it again, below.
"1800 is on the cards for AUD GOLD" - we were within spitting distance (an all-time record high) a few weeks ago, with (USD) gold lower than it is today, due to the then much lower AUD. I've no doubt we'll hit it very soon. None at all. I don't see it as a big deal with USD gold up 24% off its lows and the AUD down from 1.10 to 0.75c (32%)....personally, I see chart support at 0.62-0.64, but that's another discussion.
I'm not sure you've read many or any of my Posts on this Forum (which can tend to be long).
I wrote last night, at length that it's much, much easier to do this with AUD at 75, or even 80c , that at parity (or greater, as was the case in 2011, or 12, or whenever.). Then we needed USD gold at US$ 1,800, for AUD to match that. We don't need that hi level now.
Question is...how significant is AUD 1,800?
I'll leave it open for whomever is interested.
By my arithmetic, even if USD price of gold doesn't move an inch, it'll be AUD 1,800 at rate of 0.72c (1300/0.72) = $1,805. Very easy to do. (It's 3 1/2 cents away). We were at 68c and change in mid-January!
So I don't see that as an issue at all. And also as I wrote only yesterday, when we do, it'll be front page headlines with photos and reportage of people lining up in CBD to sell their jewelry, as it was in silver /gold mania of 1979/1980 i.e Hunt Brothers debacle of cornering the silver market over many years (leading to a 20 year bear).
So, I guess I'm saying I don't see that as a big deal. Personally, I'd like see an end to the cyclical bear market in gold that commenced 2011, and resumption of the secular bull that started at US $280 after the massive equities crash at the end of the 90's (March 2000, NASDAQ peak of 5,038, to be precise...I was there in the middle of it...from 1986-2009 in NY, a long time).
Many here are expecting exactly that, a decisive and sustainable break of that cyclical bear (since 2011) and resumption of the secular bull, back up to USD 1,800.
I also this week explained how out of whack global indices are so I don't need to be reminded, {some, not all, certainly not CHN or JPN - whatever "out of whack" means....BTW...what does it mean?...inconsistent with reality? Nothing new there....doesn't mean collapse is imminent...it can, is, and does, take years. I've seen it several epochal manias and busts, up front and personal}, and I extensively report on Econ News for this Forum, and have also worked for many of the major Wall St. banks and brokerages, so I do follow them closely...worked for JPM Chase and predecessors {the secret is it's the Chemical Bank of NY, my first employer there, 1983}, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros. my last client, even SIAC who do the IT for the NYSE and AMEX. Not boasting, just saying I have a familiarity that some may not.... and ...back to indices.....I esp. follow the US S&P 500, (also see image below, for what I follow, every day.
I gave a precise definition - in response to another member's question - of what exactly (in economics) constitutes a bubble . I used that of Jeremy Grantham of GMO, whom I respect, and it's there - here - for all to see in his Q4/20154 Newsletter: a 2 sigma event, with the S&P at 2,250 - 2,300, along with other capacity and housing related metrics...and we're not there yet and probably won't be until some time after the November Elections. In other words...maybe out of whack (see above), but not a monster equities bubble, not "the big one", no, not yet.
As always China is the wild card, but contraction has already been discounted, tho' perhaps not at the presumed 10 Year GDP rate of 4%. A negative print could easily turn things around on a dime.
I also explained (for the nth time )only last night the concept of 17 year equities cycles (based on a data series going back to 1929), the current one commencing around the date given above {March 2000}, so late 2016, 2017 is perfectly reasonable, but not tomorrow, no.
A "normal" bear market before then is perfectly...normal. US probably had one (or was pretty close) in January, 2016....could well happen again, in 2016, I don't know.
Anyway, I've said all of this before, and more, as recently as this week, and I don't want to bore people more than I already have.
As far as US indices (indexes) this is what I look at. I used to post it every morning on Day Traders Forum, and you've probably seen it there many months ago but I don't post there now. Sometimes I post it here.
