I am analysing the trend based on the observable (lagging) evidence. It's after all, all I have . On the JPYUSD - Gold relationship, I can see where Seth is coming from. He has noticed divergences between gold and the currency. If we look at smaller scale 10/20 EMA trend of the JPY/AUD, both have curved up recently, and that could be interpreted as a bullish change in nature.
He may have decided to act as a first mover on that signal (and his correlation theory), and if he is correct, and the smaller timeframe change becomes a larger timeframe trend, and gold diverges upwards, then Seth will make a lot of money, and should be commended for having the taken the risk going long gold.
Others who subscribe to the JPYUSD - Gold relationship theory may look at the broader picture 50/200MA and say "well the broader trend is still down, I won't get involved in that yet, its just a counter trend rally", and miss the cream. They may be late to the party and kick themselves.
And maybe reality will land somewhere between a 10 EMA and a 200 MA! I would personally prefer to enter long if the 50 and 200 MA's were both turned up with the 50 above the 200, and I might enter on a pull back as the 10 and 20 both turned up , or crossed. But then again...I missed the cream of the 2016 bullish change in gold. But then again, I used leverage to make up for that because I felt more comfortable buying more gold with the trend behind me
