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mainholm

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13/05/16

14:19

Post #: 17760319
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

What exactly are all those trendlines saying?

XAUUSD D1
View attachment 180302
All I see is an uptrend in this daily perspective ignoring the fall from 2011 which is out of the scope of current context. Some will define this as a momentum bullish swing in that perspective. I see a bull flag for those into this pattern, I kep this in reference but I don't trade patterns.

What is of interest to me is that horizontal resistance that broke so decisively forming the flag pole found support on 10May attempted another rally and those who believe in trendlines will argue hit trend line resistance yesterday and rotated back down. It wants to make another test of that trendline since the momentum/trend is bullish.

It would be very brave to short and hold position beside an intraday swing.

Here is a XAUUSD 1H view
View attachment 180310
All the price action happened as soon as London open session resumed from session day. Price was brought down to the resistance I have drawn, dipped into it then rallied. Market makers bought as the sell stops of the ST bulls got fired where liquidity lies. Price then expanded to the swing high where they (MM) knows the bear stops (buy stops) resides. Magically price reversed as it dipped into the swing high and reversed. The MM squared off their long positions at the top through sell stops then repeat the exercise going into the NY close session.

This being a Friday, I have no idea if they can engineer another rally as those triple top are conspicuously clear those who were fortunate to take short positions on the swing down would be protecting their position with the buy stops just above the triple tops.

My thinking is that since price spent a lot longer at the bottom during NY close session, market makers are building up a large long position and they want to take price much higher and with the help of those bears buy stops to propel them but Friday is usually a profit taking day. However we have major news tonight so anything is possible! Just my speculation....

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That is a great summary AJ.

The main thing that has me puzzled is the fact that the market makers are also the commercials with the majority of open shorts. They are building or rolling over their shorts and not covering. That is why shorts are at an all time high and conversely the money manager longs are at an all time high.

The so called experts are saying that the speculators in the money manager category are reaching buyer exhaustion. Maybe this is why the banksters/market makers are not covering their shorts?

Anyway, big games ahead............. game theory anyone?

Cheers
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