@Seth Davis
"Hold on banker."
I haven't working in a bank for over ten years, and I don't own banks shares...
"Your lovely graph only contains "nonfinancial firms", how about you add in "financial firms".
Are you suggesting that the default rates in "nonfinancial firms" and "financial firms" are uncorrelated? In which universe is that?
"...what about data that actually includes the GFC which is conveniently missing from your example."
The paper was published in 2010. If you got to Page 29 of the paper (which I doubt that you opened at all) you will note that they included 2008 data in their analysis.
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