gold, page-23994

I just pulled a standard monthly ATR(14) standard setting and comes in at $85. So the average since 2013 when price have been in a tight range relatively speaking from the POG is 6.88% at today's price. Not volatile at all if one is exposed to bullion. However the leveraged you get through gold stocks is a different matters as you know.

If one had bought at the unfortunate high of $1900 round figure, the drawdown is 35% at current price. Not earth shattering hair cut. One could wait for the recovery if it occurs again. If that is the only investment then it will require a lot of ducks (whatever they are) to line up to get to break even level. However from a gold stock perspective I see plenty of head chop from that 35% reduction in gold price rendering some at borderline of sustainability! We can talk in AUD quotes ATR monthly (14)= 110 or 6.85% volatility. Now that is interesting with the volatility the same in USD quotes! 12.4% drawdown if one bought at the top in AUd (1832) relative to current. However the destruction to some gold players is telling a different story! I have no idea why with such a small peak to current valuation of gold/AUD.

Is it simply following the fundamentals of the big picture when gold stock investing OR chart should play a role when timing? Again gold/aud trend is definitely bullish but none of the gold stocks are reflecting that, NONE! Why is that?

This is where I see the power of TA first then supported by FA. Some here are bottom picking some dead stocks on yesterday's angels and claiming they made multi baggers. No doubt you don't need the stock price to move much mathematically to achieve such return but how consistent can one achieve such results. There will always be a debate between bottom picking and trend trading. Most of those dead stocks although for those fortunate enough to ride them at the base were rewarding but I am pretty sure a lot of the LT holders riding the previous wave as gold rallied to 1900 who didn't have an exit strategy are still in all pain!

They will then move on to physical and say you cannot lose money in the LT. Probably true but neither can you make a lot of paper cap gains either. I am tired of flipping the 40 year gold chart to make a point. That is not investing but hoarding! Timing and not time in the market. I have already had this debate with our esteem brother Eshmun who has been suspended by god knows what reason. No bank default, SP500 crashing , monetary melt down, USD turning to shiete or revolution from within the capital system. We await.