gold, page-2820

Many thanks Golbear for that profound explanation.

However some of the terms you use may vary from investor with different time holding periods. You said that there could be a sell off in gold but it will not collapse so are you referring a mild sell off in gold say to the 1210 level then bounce in the direction of the trend?

To a more patient investor fortunate enough to have bought like you humble self @$1050, there might not be cause for concern. However we have no idea if the current 2 to 3 days sell off in gold is just a side effects of price being trapped in a side way congested range that obeys the laws price expansion and contraction to the upper and lower limits of that congested range. However when we get a test of the lower limits of that range and breaks, then there is every reason to believe that price could be contracting down wards in the direction of the 4 year bear trend as logic would dictate.

This will open up to the debate of whether the Dec-March rally is just another bull spike in the many that have occurred during this bear trend cycle. We will never know where price will go although some Gurus have a clear and confident levels of anticipations but that is another hotly debated topic! Personally I happen to view the bear trend of gold as a collapse so far and we can debate the definition but I don't need further analysis of the semantics as nothing in hindsight can change except further education of price behavior, essential for continue learning of price action.

I could be accused of looking through a single lens but currently USDX has a very big binary implication to the directional bias of XAUAUD and correlation is very high. Despite what a lot of opinions anticipating no rate rise this year, I happen to think they could be at least 1. Again through history Feds do not usually interfere in the election politics so the assumption is post election. Same was speculated of G Stevens and he proved historical pattern wrong! You would have read on each stock recommendation or trade signal providers that they declare history do not necessary extrapolate the future.

As far as I am concern XAUUSD is in a long term (my definition of long term) down trend punctuated by a few premature trend reversal. Current swing looks very promising but by no means a 'done deal'. As far as my exposure is concern, my main emphasis is XAUAUD the real fundamental data that will be reflected in the gold producers financial results with revenue earnings in AUDUSD. The XAUUSD price swing is just the sentiment short term noises that cause the ebb and flow of an efficient market structure of price valuation after all nothing goes up in a straight line.

I am not concern from an investing POV these minute daily noises in the gold price instead focussing on where potential AUDUSD price movement could target. We each have our own reasons to hold and I have made it as logical and accurate as I can personally here. If anyone thinks my strategy is rubbish or amateurish that's OK with me. I couldn't care less provided it makes sense to me.

I have use the concept of linking Gold to commodity as a way to separate myself for an emotive attachment to this PM. I am trying to be not a slave constantly being sucked in by a poisonous mentality of knowing where directional bias and price will go to. In other words if price falls and I didn't get out in time, then it is me to blame for any likely losses or drawdown that cause pain, not the market or Feds deliberately pushing price down to shake the ripe tree etc.....

I sure hope you are right and this is the final reversal in gold sentiment but always expect the worse.