GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Thanks for those links, interesting perspective on the cost of...

  1. 40,612 Posts.
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    Thanks for those links, interesting perspective on the cost of energy (oil) in the way they use it to gauge real interest rate. I think @goldbear77 is your man on a better view and he has been saying to look out for real rates/UJ and as Stefan Weiler also mentioned that lately UJ is very negatively correlated to gold movement "almost tick by tick". I have also noticed that as well.

    For starters I always thought the explosive move in gold from GFC right through to QE1&2 was caused by the Feds artificially pressing down bond yields with their purchases giving the impression that low yield environment favors gold BUT the focus was hyperinflation expectations. As we got to QE3, the hyperinflation expectation disappointed even though the nominal interest rate was still 'cut to the bone'!

    5yrtips.png

    As you can see 2013 1st quarter is when gold price crash through $1500 and was speculated at the time by manipulators shorting a year supply of contracts on that Friday open on Comex. The 5yr TIPS shows that yield actually spiked up at the same time so clearly a changing fortune for gold. Currently there isn't much indication of where gold is heading using this chart as the yields have been flat since 2013.

    Dec 2015 low coincided with a drop in the TIPS yield and from hindsight analysis of the COT report confluence with Commercial and Specs converging. I am not a COT reader but when the 2 measure of the different players are extremes is when there are turning points in gold either top or bottom.

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    I think currently gold according to COT still has some way to go before a top is expected. Technically Post Brexit high will be difficult to beat any level north of $1307. I have no idea what type of events will allow an aggressive rally perhaps Le Pen or Chubby Checker? From Monday I have decided to continue to accumulate gold stocks but I am buying quality instead of growth ones. This gold rally is quite extended though.

    I might be posting fancy charts here but these are what I found on the internet and I am still learning what drives gold up and down and I don't really know! There was a poster who has a very good deep knowledge of Economics, just can't recall his name but he hasn't been posting for awhile.

    I have to think a bit on my layman's brain as to how POO fits into this picture beside the rally in POO is inflationary and vice versa. I don;t think it is that simple to assume. Economics was never a subject I was taught anywhere beside googling... LOL
 
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