gold, page-30201

The big picture in chart form.

The seven year chart bellows indicates that the bear market is potentially finished and a new bull market is getting close. Despite very bullish stock markets and increased expectations of rising interest rates, over the last year the price has spent much more time pushing against overhead resistance than it has testing support. Pressure to the upside looks strong.




The longer term chart since 1995 indicates we may already be in the initial stages of a new bull market with the 20 month MA having turned up and now acting as support. The chart is self-explanatory.



The third chart shows that over the last 10 years, demand in India and China have been rising from 100T per month to now around 300T per month, soaking up all of the increased production over that time frame. It also shows that forecast mine supply is close to peaking and even when combining current production with all projects in the pipeline classed from highly probable through to very unlikely, production is still set to fall at a very significant rate from around next year. Even if demand from India and China stays flat from here on it appears as though we may see mine supply fall well below demand. If mine supply does begin to fall; is demand from investors and speculators likely to rise in anticipation of rising prices regardless of interest rate expectations? The forecast decline in production especially from current production looks surprisingly extreme. If it plays out that way, I think that US stock markets, interest rates and the US economy will all likely take the back seat and just be noise to the more dominant supply/demand differential.

I don’t hold gold but my largest holding is ASX gold developer ORR.