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Respectfully AJ, i disagree. In rural SAust lending for real...

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Fudley61

2,613 Posts.

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18/01/18

14:39

Post #: 30395371
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

"
The closely tracked Australian household debt to income ratio has now reached the 200 per cent level, and analysts at UBS said they were increasingly concerned about rising pressures among borrowers.
The increase was due to the Australian Bureau of Statistics revision to included self-managed superannuation debt.
That resulted in a 3 per cent increase in household debt from "extremely elevated levels", and pushed the ratio to income to 199.7 per cent, "one of the highest in the world," according to UBS
"With subdued growth in household income expected to continue this implies household leverage is likely to rise further in the near term.
"As a result we expect total household debt to disposable income to peak around 205 per cent before the slow deleveraging process begins," the bank said.
High household debt levels will constrain further borrowing and weigh on the earnings growth prospects of the major banks, analysts Jonathan Mott and Rachel Bentvelzen argued as they downgraded their forecasts for housing credit growth
House prices, that have begun to decline in Sydney, are expected to slide further as a result of tighter lending standards, the retreat of foreign buyers, lending limits imposed by regulators and concerns about proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax tabled by the Opposition.
"Sentiment for investment into the housing market is waning, with the 'fear of missing out' euphoria fading quickly, especially in Sydney," the analysts said in a note to clients.
"This can be seen from the fall in survey responses to questions "where is wisest place for savings? – Real Estate" and "is it a good time to buy a property?" they wrote, further pointing out that housing affordability remained an issue."
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I would be more worried about our economy and stockmarket tanking then I am about the US. Jobs figure today seems to masked the headline figure with a lukewarm reaction to AUDUSD. Canada is expected to raise IR. A commodity economy with a good rally in Crude oil. Likewise IOP is buoyant and the introduction of environmental policy by the Chinese to curb winter pollution did not have that anticipated effect of a tanking IOP but instead the opposite happens. Now we see some more IO experts predicting IOP ~50bucks as the so called Chinese new year kick in but I am going to take these "fundamentals" as a continue rise in IOP.

Our markets are playing catch up to the US and at times diverging. RBA is hamstrung to raise IR without wages growth and the state of the Syd/Mel property boom is wobbling. If the rest of the developed economies continue to power on and reign in QE/raise rates, I can see logically foreign funds leaving our shores to seek better returns elsewhere most likely in the EM.

I am more worried about our domestic stockmarket than I am about the US markets tanking or crashing.

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Respectfully AJ, i disagree.
In rural SAust lending for real estate has been tightening for a while.
In USA figures are reported, then adjusted 1 month later, then adjusted again 2 months later.
Very few check up on the adjusted figures, but there are analysts who do, and they disagree with msm reporting.
Numbers do not hold up under scrutiny, and i dont have the figures to post here, but i do read them regularly.
The USA will come down when Trump says.
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0 Great analysis

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