View attachment 941440
I based my observation on the history since GFC low and this is what I see...
Each time there is a selloff = loosely a correction, it is preceded by a spike in the VIX (purple line). So if you want to see a repeated cycle then at least that looking for a dow/sp500 short as the VIX starts to become volatile not selling the stock indices as the VIX volatility taper off trying to time a spike after you get in!
Another lesson is that regardless if you think PPT propping up the market, QE support or just Feds modifying data to suit, each equity selloff were nothing more than dip buying opportunity .So far buy the dips is so much more rewarding without doing anything besides accumulating long positioning compared to a short. You short with the right timing and don't take your interim gain, it gets wiped out and you keep repeating losing position EVERY TIME.
Eventually you'll be correct but most likely get so demoralised that it is the time you did not take the short opportunity. Shorting Bitcoins is probably a no brainer in the sense it was more a scam than anything based on fundamental. Easy to comment on it now that it has collapsed but my issue has always been how big the size of the stop is to survive a move against the sort positioning. Flip the ATR and you see the volatility requires a big stop. Big stop requires a big move to make money using the risk reward relative. No good risking $1 to make 20Cents.
Counter trend punts/trade is always a low % play and requires perfect timing and disciplined holding period until target is met. Again, no good risking $1 to make 20cents. Each individual risk profile is different and all my stock positions does not require besides the cursory glance at the chart in my case on the weekly TF. As long as I am in front I am prepared to ride it. However volatility is my worse enemy so I cut trades where I have given a big chunk of floating gain simply to mitigate the negative psychology of what I had to give up. Right or wrong does not come into it unlike some goldbugs here only looking at confirmation bias or else it was manufactured events/data. Classic textbook retail traps which I am trying to shake off and the more I read some posters reasoning, the more it forms an ideology of hater with very dogmatic views. As a consequence, they miss a decade of US run.
I am only warming up to perhaps I should be looking at ETF to try to profit from the international bull run and I am now mixing my exposure because for a long time I perceived that I had to physically buy US stocks to join!
