Plenty of discussions on the Philips curve, I 'understand' it is a cursory form as inferring inflationary. If I compare 10yr to 2yr USTB, I see the spread of the 2yr increasing implying inverted yield curve. Does that imply moving forward this is inflationary? Seems the 2 form of looking at the data is conflicting?
The complexity of gold makes it difficult to have a forecast on gold bias going forward because the metal itself reacts differently in the past to the text book fundamentals. Here are what I am grappling with constantly;
Gold = inflation hedge
Gold is protection of general market sell off
Gold=protection from hyperinflation/money printing
Gold=good for low inflationary environment (low bond yields)
Hence my focus on the charts to get some directional bias from a medium term perspective.....
