I can't ignore the trend in the gold stock indices, nor the disproportionate to historical rates that the ETFs are following the trend. During gold weakness in down trend HUI will leverage down, but during recent gold weakness it didn't, only leveraging upwards and running down at around 1:1; booming upwards again with leverage starting again last session. Average long term leverage of the HUI to POG up and down is around 3:1, but HUI busts out in euphoria, and also in doom and gloom - which is why in a double bottom or top on POG, HUI usually bottoms or tops on the first spike and the second response confirms continuation or reversal of trend.
So that's partly why I think you are going to get dusted-and-dusted over-and-over Panda. Because you are expecting the trend to conform to your perception of what should be news or information. But we don't need to individually sum total all the information. The charts do that for us. Some folks worry that some charts are based on fallacies, whether they are correct or not, that is still information. The more money and the smarter the money that has the information, and is defining the trend, the harder it is to fight. Gold is just a tiny Cinderella under its colossus parents, being the bond and Forex markets.
If you want to find trends that you can beat, then you need to find weak information in weak hands. You can find these all through the juniors on the ASX. The lithium sector would be a good place to start at the moment.
Good luck, regardless if I think you are wrong, you are due. But if you do your dough again and the wife starts laying in to you, at least no one can tell the black eyes.
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