GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Yes have seen this video and he raises an interesting view....

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    Yes have seen this video and he raises an interesting view. However I think it's a narrow view as he is only looking at one of the fundamentals "inflation adjusted" GP over a short time frame of 50 years.

    Other fundamentals I think need to be considered when analysing fair GP over a much longer time frame:
    • Monetary base; Currency in circulation vs GDP (world wide)
    • Dollar to gold ratio since 1913. Well undervalued according to US debt clock, Silver severely undervalued (current US debt clock numbers; Gold = $5413/Oz, Silver = $670/Oz). Now this doesn't mean much while we have a fiat system, but if we ever went back to a gold standard then this would be fair value but only when taking into account USD supply. It would need to be much higher for a global currency supply.
    • The likelihood of USD losing reserve status which gold is priced in. Already sharing with the yuan since 2016
    • We know the markets are manipulated down, but why? JP Morgan (largest bank in the US) currently have a class action against them for gold silver manipulation. One employee already pleaded guilty. If laws are changed and/or JPM convicted and we end up with a true free market then we will see a rerate very quickly in gold and silver. The futures market is so corrupted. How can the largest bank that owns the ETFS be allowed to manipulate the market?
    • The exponential world wide growth is unsustainable. It's manipulated by the government and federal reserve via interest rates, tax and debt. It has to end at some point or life on earth as we know it will end.

    Looking only at inflation adjust GP is backward looking view and only 50 years at that. It's a sound argument when considering gold as an investment if you are only looking at a snippet of time in history. It's a micro economic view, not a macro view. It's not even an argument if you are comparing gold to saving cash, even interest earning cash.

    All imo of course.
    Last edited by slay22: 10/03/19
 
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